Evidence on Missile Defense

After abrogating the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, President Bush ordered the deployment of a missile defense system by 2004.[1] In making the case for missile defense, however, leading Defense Department officials have distorted scientific evidence on the feasibility of such a system.

In 2002 and 2003, General Ronald Kadish, head of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency, said that the Pentagon would complete a test facility in Alaska by the end of 2004.[2] Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told a Senate Appropriations Committee that prototype interceptors able to shoot down enemy missiles would be in place at the facility by September 2004.[3] Most dramatically, Under Secretary of Defense Edward Aldridge told a Senate panel that by the end of 2004, the system would be 90% effective in intercepting missiles from the Korean peninsula.[4]

Leading independent experts have reported that these claims are unjustified. Philip Coyle, former director of the Office of Operational Test and Evaluation at the Pentagon, has reported that a missile defense system was “at least a decade” from completion.[5] The editors of Scientific American have said, “Regarding missile defense, researchers’ best guess is that a reliable system is infeasible.”[6] In April 2003, GAO found the President’s plan unworkable and even dangerous.[7]

Under Secretary Aldridge’s claim of 90% effectiveness is particularly misleading. It is not supported by any publicly available evidence, and it appears not to comport with the Pentagon’s own classified estimates.[8]

[1] Threats and Responses: Defense, New York Times (Dec. 18, 2002).

[2] Democrats Criticize Pentagon Budget, Anti-Terror War, Washington Post (Feb. 28, 2002); General Ronald Kadish, Testimony before Senate Armed Services Committee (Mar. 18, 2003).

[3] Pentagon Sees Sample Rocket By 2004, New York Times (Feb. 27, 2002); Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, Testimony before Senate Appropriations Committee, Defense Subcommittee (Feb. 27, 2002).

[4] US Claims 90% Hit Rate in Missile Plan, Los Angeles Times (Mar. 19, 2003); Under Secretary of Defense Edward Aldridge, Testimony before Senate Armed Services Committee (Mar. 18, 2003).

[5] Philip Coyle, The ABM Ambush, Washington Post (July 13, 2001).

[6] Faith-Based Reasoning, Scientific American (June 2001).

[7] GAO, Missile Defense: Knowledge-Based Practices Are Being Adopted, but Risks Remain (Apr. 2003).

[8] Letter from Reps. Henry A. Waxman and John F. Tierney to Sens. John W. Warner and Carl Levin (Mar. 19, 2003).